Here is the key: The combined effect of these three demographic trends on the overall HOR is virtually nothing. Assuming no change over the next decade in the HOR for each of the subgroups—for example, single-person, non-Hispanic white householders at least 75 years of age have the same 71.7 percent HOR in both 2010 and 2020—the overall HOR in 2020 would be 66.6 percent, virtually identical to the 2010 HOR of 66.7 percent. While demographic trends largely cancel each other out, the projected rise in the overall population means there will be (proportionately) more renters and more owners in 2020.

In conclusion, the changing age distribution of households in the United States over the next decade should boost the HOR somewhat. But changing household and ethnic composition—which is admittedly more difficult to forecast—will likely offset that boost entirely. Interestingly, the net result is that the overall HOR in 2020 will be quite similar to that of 2010. But with the increase in population that is expected, this translates into a 10-year increase of approximately 5 million renters.

Mark Obrinsky is vice president of research and chief economist for the National Multi Housing Council in Washington, D.C.