Sunny Future
The U.S. population heads for warm weather.
It looks like Americans are en route to sunshine–and savvy developers won’t be too far behind. The greatest future growth in the United States is likely to take place in the West, the Sunbelt area, and along the I-85 corridor between Raleigh, N.C., and Atlanta, according to a new population forecast study from The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. The top three spots for growth: Maricopa County in Arizona, Los Angeles County, and Las Vegas’ Clark County.
“People are becoming wealthier and looking for lifestyle and want to live in a nice area with better schools, better weather, and shorter commutes,” says Albert Saiz, an assistant real estate professor at Wharton and co-author of the study, called Forecasting 2020 U.S. County and MSA Populations. It is based on a wide range of historical data, including the weather, past growth, share of foreign-born residents, demographics, taxation patterns, and new home construction.
So what areas of the country should developers eye with caution? The cold and damp Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Midwest are predicted to have the largest slow-down in their rate of growth.
–Rachel Z. Azoff
PLACES TO WATCH
Five most likely places for population growth:
- Maricopa County (Phoenix-Mesa, Ariz.)
- Los Angeles County (Los Angeles-Long Beach, Calif.)
- Clark County (Las Vegas)
- Harris County (Houston)
- Orange County (Calif.)
Five least likely places for population growth:
- Baltimore County (Md.)
- Oswego County (Syracuse, N.Y.)
- Herkimer County (Utica-Rome, N.Y.)
- Cayuga County (Syracuse, N.Y.)
- Chautauqua County (Jamestown, N.Y.)