West Palm Beach, Fla.
Houston
Kansas City, Mo.
Dayton, Ohio
Phoenix
Denver
Pittsburgh
Atlanta
Oklahoma City
Cincinnati
Sacramento, Calif.
Seattle
San Francisco
Orlando, Fla.
Indianapolis
Cleveland
Minneapolis
Austin, Texas
Salt Lake City
Oakland, Calif.
Columbus, Ohio
San Jose, Calif.
Revenue Loss Projected Through 2004: Above 3 percent
The group is heavy on Midwest cities, where manufacturing’s key role in the employment base always translates to comparatively big job losses during times of national economic turmoil. Also present are many markets with sizable job concentrations in the struggling high-tech industries.
Notable Markets: Austin, Texas and Houston. Austin and Houston could see big movement in the upcoming year. Austin’s poor showing primarily reflects the large amount of product still under construction as of mid-2003. However, almost all of that future stock is nearing completion, and this year’s starts have been minimal. Furthermore, after sizable cuts in rents, there is a much bigger difference between rental costs and home purchase expense in Austin than elsewhere in Texas. On the other hand, Houston, which barely misses the cut off to qualify as a third-tier market, could see its position relative to other metros deteriorate quickly. A dramatic surge in construction starts will equate to a flood of completions throughout 2004 and into early 2005.
* Markets are listed from strongest to weakest.