Potential competition from for-sale product also raises some concern about the rent growth prospects across Atlanta; Orlando, Fla.; Philadelphia; Pittsburgh; San Antonio; and West Palm Beach, Fla. In these cities, cost differences between buying and renting may not have shown significant movement recently, but there never was much of a purchase premium to begin with.
The bottom line for most of the trouble spot cities is that today’s effective rents really should be considered true market rates. Any discounts now thought of as concessions probably will be around for quite some time. Until interest rates rise significantly, there simply isn’t room for rents to go up without spurring large numbers of additional renters into making home purchase decisions.
On the other hand, Albuquerque, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh have comparatively strong occupancy rates and only limited additional product in the pipeline. For these cities, competition from the for-sale market may cap rent growth potential for the most expensive apartments, but more affordable product likely could perform well.
Furthermore, while rent escalation prospects do not appear favorable in a significant number of markets, overall revenue growth still could be realized through improved occupancy.
Trends in the for-sale sector seem unlikely to have much impact on rent growth potential across several markets that experienced sizable rent declines recently. This group includes Boston, Chicago, Denver, Minneapolis, the San Francisco Bay area, and Austin, Texas. In these locales, any fundamental correction needed between home sale prices and apartment rents appears to have already occurred. That doesn’t mean that additional rent reductions won’t be seen, but rent shifts should reflect the traditional supply/demand relationship rather than the influence of the for-sale option.
Also look for the trends in supply and demand to shape future rent growth patterns in areas like Northern New Jersey, most of South Florida, Southern California, and metro Washington – areas that have ranked among the nation’s better performers in recent times. All of these markets have plenty of room for rents to rise without prompting a sizable outflow of apartment renters into for-sale housing.
As always, metro-level analysis provides only a broad perspective as to likely trends for individual apartment communities, as neighborhood-level conditions have far more impact on a specific project’s performance. Individual property characteristics likewise are important, and can produce revenue results far different from the patterns seen across the metro as a whole.
Greg Willett is vice president of research products for Dallas-based M/PF Research Inc. Raymond Torto is principal and managing director of Boston-based Torto Wheaton Research.